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The point in time when current trends may go wildly
off the charts--known as the "Singularity"--is now getting serious
attention. What it suggests is that technological change will soon become so
rapid that we cannot possibly envision its results.
Technological change isn't just happening fast. It's
happening at an exponential rate. Contrary to the commonsense, intuitive,
linear view, we won't just experience 100 years of progress in the
twenty-first century-it will be more like 20,000 years of progress.
The near-future results of exponential technological
growth will be staggering: the merging of biological and nonbiological
entities in bio-robotics, plants and animals engineered to grow
pharmaceutical drugs, software-based "life," smart robots, and
atom-sized machines that self-replicate like living matter. Some individuals
are even warning that we could lose control of this expanding
techno-cornucopia and cause the total extinction of life as we know it.
Others are researching how this permanent technological overdrive will affect
us. They're trying to understand what this new world of ours will look like
and how accelerating technology already impacts us.
A number of scientists believe machine
intelligence will surpass human intelligence within a few decades, leading to
what's come to be called the Singularity. Author and inventor Ray Kurzweil
defines this phenomenon as "technological change so rapid and profound
it could create a rupture in the very fabric of human history."
Singularity is technically a mathematical term,
perhaps best described as akin to what happens on world maps in a standard
atlas. Everything appears correct until we look at regions very close to the
poles. In the standard Mercator projection, the poles appear not as points
but as a straight line. Each line is a singularity: Everywhere along the top
line contains the exact point of the North Pole, and the bottom line is the
entire South Pole. The singularity on the edge of the map is nothing
compared to the singularity at the center of a black hole. Here one finds the
astrophysicist's singularity, a rift in the continuum of space and time where
Einstein's rules no longer function. The approaching technological
Singularity, like the singularities of black holes, marks a point of
departure from reality. Explorers once wrote "Beyond here be
dragons" on the edges of old maps of the known world, and the image of
life as we approach these edges of change are proving to be just as
mysterious, dangerous, and controversial. There is no concise definition for the Singularity.
Kurzweil and many transhumanists define it as "a future time when
societal, scientific, and economic change is so fast we cannot even imagine
what will happen from our present perspective." A range of dates is
given for the advent of the Singularity. "I'd be surprised if it
happened before 2004 or after 2030," writes author and computer science
professor Vernor Vinge. A distinctive feature will be that machine
intelligence will have exceeded and even merged with human intelligence. Another
definition is used by extropians, who say it denotes "the singular time
when technological development will be at its fastest." From an
environmental perspective, the Singularity can be thought of as the point at
which technology and nature become one. Whatever perspective one takes, at
this juncture the world as we have known it will become extinct, and new
definitions of life, nature, and human will take hold.
Many leading technology industries have been
aware of the possibility of a Singularity for some time. There are concerns
that, if the public understood its ramifications, they might panic over
accepting new and untested technologies that bring us closer to Singularity.
For now, the debate about the consequences of the Singularity has stayed
within the halls of business and technology; the kinks are being worked out,
avoiding "doomsday" hysteria. At this time, it appears to matter
little if the Singularity ever truly comes to pass.
What Will Singularity Look Like?
Kurzweil explains that central to the workings of
the Singularity are a number of "laws," one of which is Moore's
law. Intel cofounder Gordon E. Moore noted that the number of transistors
that could fit on a single computer chip had doubled every year for six years
from the beginnings of integrated circuits in 1959. Moore predicted that the
trend would continue, and it has-although the doubling rate was later
adjusted to an 18-month cycle. Today, the smallest transistors in chips span
only thousands of atoms (hundreds of nanometers). Chipmakers build such
components using a process in which they apply semiconducting, metallic, and
insulating layers to a semiconductor wafer to create microscopic circuitry.
They accomplish the procedure using light for imprinting patterns onto the
wafer. In order to keep Moore's law moving right along, researchers today
have built circuits out of transistors, wires, and other components as tiny
as a few atoms across that can carry out simple computations.
Kurzweil and Sun Microsystems' chief scientist
Bill Joy agree that, circa 2030, the technology of the 1999 film The Matrix
(which visualized a three-dimensional interface between humans and computers,
calling conventional reality into question) will be within our grasp and that
humanity will be teetering on the edge of the Singularity. (See their essays
in Taking the Red Pill: Science, Philosophy, and Religion in The Matrix,
edited by Glenn Yeffeth, 2003.) Kurzweil explains that this will become
possible because Moore's law will be replaced by another computing paradigm
over the next few decades. "Moore's law was not the first but the fifth
paradigm to provide exponential growth of computing power," Kurzweil
says. The first paradigm of computer technology was the data processing
machinery used in the 1890 American census. This electromechanical computing
technology was followed by the paradigms of relay-based technology, vacuum
tubes, transistors, and eventually integrated circuits. "Every time a
paradigm ran out of steam," states Kurzweil, "another paradigm came
along and picked up where that paradigm left off." The sixth paradigm,
the one that will enable technology á la The Matrix, will be here in 20 to 30
years. "It's obvious what the sixth paradigm will be-computing in three
dimensions," says Kurzweil. "We will effectively merge with our
technology." Stewart Brand in his book The Clock of the Long
Now discusses the Singularity and another related law, Monsanto's law, which
states that the ability to identify and use genetic information doubles every
12 to 24 months. This exponential growth in biological knowledge is
transforming agriculture, nutrition, and health care in the emerging
life-sciences industry. A field of research building on the exponential
growth rate of biotechnology is nanotechnology-the science of building
machines out of atoms. A nanometer is atomic in scale, a distance that's
0.001% of the width of human hair. One goal of this science is to change the
atomic fabric of matter-to engineer machine-like atomic structures that
reproduce like living matter. In this respect, it is similar to
biotechnology, except that nanotechnology needs to literally create something
like an inorganic version of DNA to drive the building of its tiny machines.
"We're working out the rules of biology in a realm where nature hasn't
had the opportunity to work," states University of Texas biochemistry
professor Angela Belcher. "What would take millions of years to evolve
on its own takes about three weeks on the bench top."
Machine progress is knocking down the barriers
between all the sciences. Chemists, biologists, engineers, and physicists are
now finding themselves collaborating on more and more experimental research.
This collaboration is best illustrated by the opening of Cornell University's
Nanobiotechnology Center and other such facilities around the world. These
scientists predict breakthroughs soon that will open the way to
molecular-size computing and the quantum computer, creating new scientific
paradigms where exponential technological progress will leap off the map.
Those who have done the exponential math quickly realize the possibilities in
numerous industries and scientific fields-and then they notice the anomaly of
the Singularity happening within this century. In 2005, IBM plans to introduce Blue Gene, a
supercomputer that can perform at about 5% of the power of the human brain.
This computer could transmit the entire contents of the Library of Congress
in less than two seconds. Blue Gene/L, specifically developed to advance and
serve the growing life-sciences -industry, is expected to operate at about
200 teraflops (200 trillion floating -point operations per second), larger
than the total computing power of the top 500 supercomputers in the world. It
will be able to run extremely complex simulations, including breakthroughs in
computers and information technology, creating new frontiers in biology, says
IBM's Paul M. Horn. According to Moore's law, computer hardware will surpass
human brainpower in the first decade of this century. Software that emulates
the human mind-artificial intelligence-may take another decade to evolve.
Nanotech Advances Promote Singularity
Physicists, mathematicians, and scientists like
Vinge and Kurzweil have identified through their research the likely
boundaries of the Singularity and have predicted with confidence various
paths leading up to it over the next couple of decades. These scientists are
currently debating what discovery could set off a chain reaction of Earth-altering
technological events. They suggest that advancements in the fields of
nanotechnology or the discovery of artificial intelligence could usher in the
Singularity. The majority of people closest to these theories
and laws-the tech sector-can hardly wait for these technologies to arrive.
The true believers call themselves extropians, posthumans, and
transhumanists, and are actively organizing not just to bring the Singularity
about, but to counter the technophobes and neo-Luddites who believe that
unchecked technological progress will exceed our ability to reverse any
destructive process that might un-intentionally be set in motion.
The antithesis to neo-Luddite activists is the
extropians. For example, the Progress Action Coalition, formed in 2001 by
bio-artist, author, and extropian activist Natasha Vita-More, fantasizes
about "the dream of true artificial intelligence . . . adding a new
richness to the human landscape never before known." Pro-Act,
AgBioworld, Biotechnology Progress, Foresight Institute, the Progress and
Freedom Foundation, and other industry groups acknowledge, however, that the
greatest threat to technological progress comes not just from environmental
groups, but from a small faction of the scientific community.
Knowledge-Enabled Mass Destruction
In April 2000, a wrench was thrown into the
arrival of the Singularity by an unlikely source: Sun Micro-systems chief
scientist Bill Joy. He is a neo-Luddite without being a Luddite, a technologist
warning the world about technology. Joy co-founded Sun Microsystems, helped
create the Unix computer operating system, and developed the Java and Jini
software systems-systems that helped give the Internet "life."
In a now-infamous cover story in Wired magazine,
"Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Joy warned of the dangers posed
by developments in genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics. Joy's warning of
the impacts of exponential technological progress run amok gave new credence
to the coming Singularity. Unless things change, Joy predicted, "We
could be the last generation of humans." Joy warned that "knowledge
alone will enable mass destruction" and termed this phenomenon
"knowledge-enabled mass destruction." The twentieth century gave rise to nuclear,
biological, and chemical (NBC) technologies that, while powerful, require
access to vast amounts of raw (and often rare) materials, technical
information, and large-scale industries. The twenty-first-century
technologies of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (GNR), however, will
require neither large facilities nor rare raw materials.
The threat posed by GNR technologies becomes
further amplified by the fact that some of these new technologies have been
designed to be able to replicate-i.e., they can build new versions of
themselves. Nuclear bombs did not sprout more bombs, and toxic spills did not
grow more spills. If the new self-replicating GNR technologies are released
into the environment, they could be nearly impossible to recall or control.
Joy understands that the greatest dangers we face
ultimately stem from a world where global corporations dominate-a future
where much of the world has no voice in how the world is run.
Twenty-first-century GNR technologies, he writes, "are being developed
almost exclusively by corporate enterprises. We are aggressively pursuing the
promises of these new technologies within the now-unchallenged system of
global capitalism and its manifold financial incentives and competitive
pressures." Joy believes that the system of global
capitalism, combined with our current rate of progress, gives the human race
a 30% to 50% chance of going extinct around the time the Singularity is
expected to happen, around 2030. "Not only are these estimates not encouraging,"
he adds, "but they do not include the probability of many horrid
outcomes that lie short of extinction." It is very likely that scientists and global
corporations will miss key developments-or, worse, actively avoid discussion of
them. A whole generation of biologists has left the field for the biotech and
nanotech labs. Biologist Craig Holdredge, who has followed biotech since its
beginnings in the 1970s, warns, "Biology is losing its connection with
nature." When Machines Make War
Cloning, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and
robotics are blurring the lines between nature and machine. In his 1972
speech "The Android and the Human," science-fiction visionary
Philip K. Dick told his audience, "Machines are becoming more human. Our
environment, and I mean our man-made world of machines, is becoming alive in
ways specifically and fundamentally analogous to ourselves." In the near
future, Dick prophesied, a human might shoot a robot only to see it bleed
from its wound. When the robot shoots back, it may be surprised to find the
human gush smoke. "It would be rather a great moment of truth for both
of them," Dick added. In November 2001, Advanced Cell Technology of
Massachusetts jarred the nation's focus away from recession and terrorism
when it announced that it had succeeded in cloning early-stage human embryos.
Debate on the topic stayed equally divided between those who support
therapeutic cloning and those, like the American Medical Association, who
want an outright ban. Karel Capek coined the word robot (Czech for
"forced labor") in the 1920 play R.U.R., in which machines assume
the drudgery of factory production, then develop feelings and proceed to wipe
out humanity in a violent revolution. While the robots in R.U.R. could
represent the "nightmare vision of the proletariat seen through
middle-class eyes," as science-fiction author Thomas Disch has
suggested, they also are testament to the persistent fears of man-made
technology run amok. Similar themes have manifested themselves in
popular culture and folklore since at least medieval times. While some might
dismiss these stories simply as popular paranoia, robots are already being
deployed beyond Hollywood and are poised to take over the deadlier duties of
the modern soldier. The Pentagon is replacing soldiers with sensors,
vehicles, aircraft, and weapons that can be operated by remote control or are
autonomous. Pilot less aircraft played an important role in the bombings of
Afghanistan, and a model called the Gnat conducted surveillance flights in
the Philippines in 2002. Leading the Pentagon's remote-control warfare
effort is the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Best known
for creating the infrastructure that became the World Wide Web, DARPA is
working with Boeing to develop the X-45 unmanned combat air vehicle. The
30-foot-long windowless planes will carry up to 12 bombs, each weighing 250
pounds. According to military analysts, the X-45 will be used to attack radar
and antiaircraft installations as early as 2007. By 2010, it will be
programmed to distinguish friends from foes without consulting humans and
independently attack targets in designated areas. By 2020, robotic planes and
vehicles will direct remote-controlled bombers toward targets, robotic
helicopters will coordinate driverless convoys, and unmanned submarines will
clear mines and launch cruise missiles. Rising to the challenge of mixing man and
machine, MIT's Institute for Soldier Nanotechnologies (backed by a five-year,
$50-million U.S. Army grant) is busy innovating materials and designs to
create military uniforms that rival the best science fiction. Human soldiers
themselves are being transformed into modern cyborgs through robotic devices
and nanotechnology. The Biorobotic Arms Race
The 2002 International Conference on Robotics and
Automation, hosted by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers,
kicked off its technical session with a discussion on biorobots, the melding
of living and artificial structures into a cybernetic organism or cyborg.
"In the past few years, the biosciences and
robotics have been getting closer and closer," says Paolo Dario, founder
of Italy's Advanced Robotics Technology and Systems Lab. "More and more,
biological models are used for the design of biometric robots [and] robots
are increasingly used by neuroscientists as clinical platforms for validating
biological models." Artificial constructs are beginning to approach the
scale and complexity of living systems. Some of the scientific breakthroughs expected in
the next few years promise to make cloning and robotics seem rather benign.
The merging of technology and nature has already yielded some shocking
progeny. Consider these examples: · Researchers at the State University
of New York Health Science Center at Brooklyn have turned a living rat into a
radio-controlled automaton using three electrodes placed in the animal's
brain. The animal can be remotely steered through an obstacle course, making
it twist, turn, and jump on demand. · In May 2002, eight elderly Florida
residents were injected with microscopic silicon identification chips encoded
with medical information. The Los Angeles Times reported that this made them
"scannable just like a jar of peanut butter in the supermarket checkout
line." Applied Digital Solutions Inc., the maker of the chip, will soon
have a prototype of an implantable device able to receive GPS satellite
signals and transmit a person's location. · Human embryos have been
successfully implanted and grown in artificial wombs. The experiments were
halted after a few days to avoid violating in vitro fertilization
regulations. · Researchers in Israel have
fashioned a "bio-computer" out of DNA that can handle a billion
operations per second with 99.8% accuracy. Reuters reports that these
bio-computers are so minute that "a trillion of them could fit inside a
test tube." · In England, University of Reading
Professor Kevin Warwick has implanted microchips in his body to remotely
monitor and control his physical motions. During Warwick's Project Cyborg
experiments, computers were able to remotely monitor his movements and open
doors at his approach. · Engineers at the U.S. Sandia
National Labs have built a remote-controlled spy robot equipped with a
scanner, microphone, and chemical microsensor. The robot weighs one ounce and
is smaller than a dime. Lab scientists predict that the microbot could prove
invaluable in protecting U.S. military and economic interests.
The next arms race is not based on replicating
and perfecting a single deadly technology, like the nuclear bombs of the past
or some space-based weapon of the future. This new arms race is about accelerating
the development and integration of advanced autonomous, biotechnological, and
human-robotic systems into the military apparatus. A mishap or a massive war
using these new technologies could be more catastrophic than any nuclear war.
Where the Map Exceeds the Territory
The rate at which GNR technologies are being
adopted by our society-without regard to long-term safety testing or
researching the political, cultural, and economic ramifications-mirrors the
development and proliferation of nuclear power and weapons. The human loss
caused by experimentation, production, and development is still being felt
from the era of NBC technologies. The discussion of the environmental impacts of
GNR technologies, at least in the United States, has been relegated to the
margins. Voices of concern and opposition have likewise been missing in
discussions of the technological Singularity. The true cost of this
technological progress and any coming Singularity will mean the unprecedented
decline of the planet's inhabitants at an ever-increasing rate of global
extinction. The World Conservation Union, the International
Botanical Congress, and a majority of the world's biologists believe that a
global mass extinction already is under way. As a direct result of human
activity (resource extraction, industrial agriculture, the introduction of
non-native animals, and population growth), up to one-fifth of all living
species are expected to disappear within 30 years. A 1998 Harris Poll of the
5,000 members of the American Institute of Biological Sciences found that 70%
believed that what has been termed "The Sixth Extinction" is now
under way. A simultaneous Harris Poll found that 60% of the public were
totally unaware of the impending biological collapse.
At the same time that nature's ancient biological
creation is on the decline, laboratory-created biotech life-forms-genetically
modified soybeans, genetically engineered salmon, cloned sheep, drug-crops,
biorobots-are on the rise. Nature and technology are not just evolving; they
are competing and combining with one another. Ultimately they will become
one. We hear reports daily about these new technologies and new creations,
while shreds of the ongoing biological collapse surface here and there. Past the
edges of change, beyond the wall across the future, anything becomes
possible. Beware the dragons. Originally published in The Futurist June 1,
2003. |
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